Why Does this Popular Crypto Trader Think a Bull Market is Imminent?

In a recent tweet, popular crypto trader and analyst Michael Van de Poppe shared his insights on the current state of the Bitcoin market cycle, suggesting that a bullish period could be on the horizon.

Van de Poppe emphasized the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market, drawing parallels between different cycles. He looked particularly at bull cycles that came shortly after halving events.

He noted that the upcoming halving is approximately 250 days away, and the current phase could be seen as the “final sweep” before a bullish continuation.

What does Van de Poppe Predict?

Drawing from historical data, Van de Poppe examined previous market cycles to make projections about the potential trajectory of the current one:

• 2015/2016: This cycle involved a lengthy accumulation phase and sideways price movement for about a year before the price accelerated. Van de Poppe suggested comparing the current period to the time around October 2015 or the aftermath of the first major price surge.
• 2018/2019: A significant price crash occurred about 252 days prior to the halving, followed by a retest and final sweep at $6.8K. However, the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic acted as an outlier, disrupting the expected pattern.
• 2022/2023: The current cycle is marked by a correction following a substantial price run, with altcoins experiencing a notable adjustment. Van de Poppe indicated that while a bullish trend seems likely, a dip to around $24K could be seen before the uptrend resumes.

Van de Poppe drew parallels to the 2015/2016 cycle, particularly noting the influx of new participants in the current market. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin’s price surged over 2x before the halving, suggesting that a pre-halving price of $50-55K could be within the realm of possibility. He even posed the question of whether ETF approval could potentially impact this trajectory.

The analyst also highlighted the present period as one characterized by low confidence in the market and negative biases, especially surrounding altcoins. Interestingly, he noted that altcoins are undergoing a turnaround when least expected.

While acknowledging varying interpretations, Van de Poppe concluded on an optimistic note, indicating that a new bull market is just around the corner. He projected that the next 4-6 weeks might involve a “survival phase” for traders, after which a bullish ascent is anticipated.

What is the Halving and Does it Affect Bitcoin’s Price?

The halving is a key event in Bitcoin’s protocol that occurs approximately every four years. The rewards miners receive for verifying transactions and adding them to the blockchain are cut in half. This reduction in mining rewards is designed to control the total supply of Bitcoin, ultimately contributing to its scarcity and potentially impacting its price over time.

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While historically Bitcoin has seen major rallies following the halving, other things need to be taken into consideration. Macroeconomic trends, investor sentiment, major geo-political events, and regulatory changes could also impact the price of Bitcoin and determine whether the market is going to enter a new bull cycle soon.

Will history repeat itself, or will we see drastically different Bitcoin movements this cycle?